The Impact of Population Ageing and Social Stratification: The Case of Latvia

Abstract

Population ageing and social stratification is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on the economy yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. The aim of this article is to investigate the relationships between population ageing and social stratification and the state of economy of a small and post-transition economy. We are looking for these relationships and their strength of influence; at what time after shocking these variables reach their original levels. We apply standard Granger (non-) causality tests, VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive), IRF (Impulse Response Function) and the prediction error variance analysis by using quarterly data from 2000 to 2018. Research results show that the changes in the level of GDP per capita and the number of pensions paid imply changes in the number of retired persons. The research results have important contribute to policy debates about the impact of population ageing and social stratification on the state of economy in small and post-transition economy.

The paper was supported by the project “INTERFRAME-LV” (Project No.VPP-IZM-2018/1-0005)